Ozempic is still the GLP-1 king, but Lilly is rapidly gaining market share, with its Q2 2024 sales reaching $3.01 billion compared to Novo Nordisk’s $5.38 billion.
In terms of Q2 quarterly sales, Lilly’s chronic weight management therapy Zepbound in particular is growing quickly with 140% growth between Q1 and Q2. Mounjaro, which, like Zepbound is also tirzepatide-based, saw 71% growth. Meanwhile, Novo Nordisk’s GLP-1 franchise showed more modest quarterly growth rates in the first two quarters. Rybelsus led Novo’s portfolio with an 18% increase, while Ozempic and Victoza saw slower growth at 3.83% and 3.85% respectively.
Novo Nordisk’s semaglutide formulations, Wegovy and Rybelsus, led the company’s Q2 2024 growth with year-over-year increases of 53% and 49%, respectively. Ozempic, another semaglutide product, saw a 30% increase, while even the older Victoza (liraglutide) grew by 21%, driven by a 113% surge in North American demand. Sales in other regions dipped.
Despite Lilly’s statement in its Q2 report that Mounjaro lacked meaningful year-over-year comparisons, sales data for Q2 2024 was as the therapy won FDA approval on May 13, 2022 for the treatment of type 2 diabetes. In Q2 2024, the drug experienced a 215.5% year-over-year sales bump. At the same time, Lilly’s established GLP-1 product Trulicity (dulaglutide) saw a 31% dip, pointing to some cannibalization by its newer offerings.
Below, meaningful Zepbound data were not available to graph:
For the time being, Novo Nordisk’s Ozempic remains the dominant GLP-1 product with $4.20 billion in Q2 sales, outpacing its nearest competitor, Lilly’s Mounjaro, by more than $1 billion. Yet Lilly’s sales growth suggests a quickly closing gap, with Mounjaro’s 71% quarterly growth and Zepbound’s 140% quarterly increase.
Momentum for the GLP-1 drug class is likely to continue to build with Morgan Stanley projecting that roughly 10% of the U.S. population could on the therapies as of 2034. Novo Nordisk and Lilly are likely to command a significant share of the market for years to come, with Morningstar projecting the companies would retain 80-90% or more of the GLP-1 market share for the foreseeable future.
Data in the analysis was sourced from quarterly reports from the respective companies. DKK was converted to USD at a rate of 6.8777.
Filed Under: Metabolic disease/endicrinology
