2. Moderate blue scenario
The event of a blue sweep where Democrats have a smaller majority in the Senate would increase the chances of more-moderate drug pricing restrictions. In this scenario, drug pricing reform would likely take cues from the Prescription Drug Pricing Reduction Act (PDPRA or S. 2453) of the Senate Committee on Finance.
CBO estimated that the bill would reduce federal deficits by $100 billion over 10 years while driving some reduction in commercial prescription drug costs.
While H.R. 3 would drive an estimated $66.5 billion in spending from 2020 to 2029, PDPRA would potentially save $15 billion from 2021 to 2030, according to the Kaiser Family Foundation.
The PDPRA bill contains a few pharma friendly provisions, such as its reduction in the pharmaceutical industry’s cost burden associated with Medicare Part D.
Biden would likely enact bipartisan legislation in a similar vein to PDPRA. “For most of his life, Joe Biden has been mostly a centrist despite some left-leaning commentary during the course of the primaries,” reasoned Navin Jacob, a UBS analyst.
Morningstar analyst Karen Anderson also concluded that Biden is unlikely to pursue “significant drug pricing policy changes, in spite of more-aggressive reform recommendations from the Biden-Sanders unity task force.”