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At least 10 vaccines have entered or completed Phase 3 trials. And by the second half of 2021, COVID-19 infections could begin falling sharply, according to projections from the investment bank UBS.
Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, recently shared a similar perspective. “I think we will be going in the right direction of some degree of normality as we head into 2021 in the second, third and fourth quarter,” he told the American Medical Association.
While the prospect of giving two doses of COVID-19 vaccines to roughly two billion people may seem daunting, the investment bank UBS believes strong demand will enable a quarter of the global population to receive vaccines next year.
Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) and Moderna (NSDQ:MRNA) together could vaccinate nearly 15% of the world’s population. AstraZeneca (LON:AZN) could add an additional 24%.
But despite the unprecedented speed of COVID-19 vaccine developments, inoculating billions of people across the globe will invariably be a slow process. According to CDC Director Robert Redfield, approximately 40 million doses will be available to Americans by the end of June.
COVID-19 infections, however, are spreading rapidly in the interim.
The U.S. could see almost 500,00 deaths by March 1, 2021, according to predictions from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. The organization predicts that the pandemic’s peak would occur in the first two months of the new year.
By the end of 2021, however, the effects of the pandemic will likely be more muted. UBS projects that roughly 50% or more of the global population could be immune or asymptomatic. In an optimistic scenario, the world could reach herd immunity by that same time frame.
Filed Under: clinical trials, Drug Discovery, Infectious Disease
