On Friday, Kevenue, the maker of Tylenol, saw its stocks drop more than 10% after the Wall Street Journal reported that Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy plans to release a federal report connecting prenatal use of Tylenol to autism.
As Kennedy and his appointed vaccine panel continue to erode vaccine recommendations, many of the major vaccine companies have faced consequences in the market. Moderna, Sanofi, Pfizer, BioNTech and Merck & Co. have all seen their stocks fall since the beginning of the year.
Moderna’s stock in particular has taken the brunt, falling 42.08% YTD. Moderna produces three mRNA vaccines, two for COVID-19 and one for RSV and a substantial pipeline. The narrow scope of their product focus is likely the reason this stock has fallen the most YTD among the companies mentioned.
In contrast, GSK, which produces 44 products, 17 of which are vaccines, is up 17.76% YTD. However, Pharmaphorum reports that GSK paid $429 million upfront for global rights to CureVac’s mRNA vaccines for influenza and COVID-19. Both vaccines are currently in Phase 2 studies.
Compounding factors
As many of these companies are broadly focused, recent instability around vaccines may not be entirely to blame. Sanofi’s stock, for instance, fell 8.2% after disappointing results from a Phase 3 study on amlitelimab, a treatment for atopic dermatitis. Although the study showed statistically significant improvement in symptoms, the data were still weaker than that of Dupixent, also a Sanofi drug. Dupixent will lose patent protection in 2031, and amlitelimab was proposed as its successor.
Although BioNTech’s stock is down 10.89% YTD, it jumped on 9.82% Sept. 5 after the release of promising Phase 3 results for its breast cancer treatment BNT323, which it developed with Duality Biologics.
ACIP’s next targets
Although the official agenda for the next ACIP meeting has yet to be published, Senator Bennet of Colorado said the committee is set to “review recommendations for the hepatitis B vaccine, for the measles, mumps and rubella vaccine, the varicella vaccine and the RSV vaccine,” during Kennedy’s Senate hearing last week.
GSK has three hepatitis B vaccines: Pediarix, Engerix-B and Twinrix. The company also has two flu vaccines and one MMR vaccine, all of which are vulnerable to changing recommendations. Flu vaccine recommendations have already been walked back by the committee at their last meeting, where they voted to remove recommendations of flu vaccines containing thimerosal, a substance that has been falsely linked to autism. The committee also voted to recommend the common flu vaccine, which does not contain thimerosal, to all patients over six months old.
Taking into account the ACIP’s upcoming meeting, GSK has five of its 17 vaccines on the line. Walking back recommendations would likely lead to lagging sales. Insurance companies would be less likely to cover the vaccines, and pharmacies won’t order as much stock. Depending on the committee’s decisions, GSK may not be out of the weeds yet even though its stock is up 17.76% YTD.
Dynavax will likely also be affected by the ACIP meeting as its hepatitis B vaccine, Heplisav-B, is its only product on the market. Dynavax stock is down 28.81% YTD. The company has two vaccines in clinical trials, one for shingles and one for plague for which they are collaborating with the Department of Defense.
Merck has vaccines for hepatitis B, MMR, MMRV, Vericella and RSV, all of which are commonly mandated for public school. If the ACIP walks back recommendations, sales of these vaccines will likely fall. With Florida looking to end vaccine mandates for public schools entirely, vaccination rates among school-aged children will certainly decrease, especially if more states follow suit. These are six of Merck’s 15 vaccines. The company has 49 products in total, which likely will improve its resiliency to changing recommendations and mandates.
Sanofi has a vaccine for hepatitis B and one for RSV which may also suffer from possible walkbacks. However, these are only two of the company’s 18 vaccines and 30 other products. Like Merck, Sanofi may be more resilient against changes.
Filed Under: Immunology
