Eli Lilly is experiencing meteoric growth in 2024, driven by surging demand for its metabolic therapies. In the first quarter, Lilly’s revenue jumped 26% year-over-year to $8.77 billion, propelled by strong sales of diabetes drug Mounjaro and weight loss treatment Zepbound
Lilly also significantly raised its full-year 2024 outlook. The company now expects revenue in the range of $42.4 billion to $43.6 billion, an increase of $2 billion from its prior forecast
Last year, Lilly projected it would generate total revenues between $40.4 billion and $41.6 billion in 2024. Its revenues were $28.5 billion in 2022 and $34.1 billion in 2023.
One of the largest growth drivers for Eli Lilly is tirzepatide (sold as Mounjaro for diabetes and Zepbound for obesity). Approved for an obesity indication in November 2023, Zepbound could see between $2.2 billion in sales, according to Morgan Stanley, or hit $2.7 billion for the year, according to Bank of America forecasts. Analysts at Guggenheim expect the drug to overtake Novo Nordisk’s megablockbuster semaglutide, potentially overtaking Humira (adalimumab) as the best-selling drug of all time in the long run. Additionally, Goldman Sachs projects the broader market for anti-obesity drugs including Zepbound could to hit $100 billion per year by 2030, a 16-fold increase from 2023 levels.
A machine learning/time series forecasting model (more on the methodology below) projected annual Mounjaro sales to reach roughly $7.2 billion in 2024 based on the first quarter’s performance while full-year Zepbound sales could top $2 billion. Zepbound generated $517.4 million in U.S. sales in Q1 2024 alone, besting analyst expectations. (These models are not intended to be considered for investment purposes.)
A closer look at Mounjaro’s past performance
Already, the drug is a strong seller as Mounjaro — and the single biggest growth driver for Lilly presently. In Q4 2023, Mounjaro sales reached $2.2 billion, a significant increase from $279 million in the same period of 2022. For the full year, Mounjaro generated $5.16 billion in sales.
GlobalData projects Mounjaro will top Novo Nordisk’s megablockbuster Ozempic in sales by 2027 and emerge as the leading drug in the obesity and diabetes market by 2029, with projected sales of $27 billion that year, according to a synopsis from Biopharma Reporter. While Lilly executives are optimistic about the drug’s future growth trajectory, realizing the therapy’s potential partly depends on overcoming the supply constraints that have weighed down Mounjaro and other incretin drugs.
Tirzepatide helping stoke stock and sales growth in 2024
Over the past year, Lilly’s stock has climbed 119% to $775.99. The following chart combines Eli Lilly’s historical daily stock prices up to April 3, 2024, with quarterly financial data to forecast the company’s stock price for the remainder of 2024 using Meta’s Prophet time-series prediction model. The data and recent indicators suggest healthy growth for the remainder of the year, with a base prediction that Lilly’s stock will surpass $1,000 per share well before the end of the year with a projected annual growth rate close to 80% for 2024.
[Updated Prophet model]
Lilly’s quarterly revenue levels in 2024 could potentially clock in at twice the levels as in 2020 if growth rates hold. As mentioned earlier, Mounjaro will likely drive much of its future growth with Zepbound emerging as a blockbuster in 2024. For Q4 2023, worldwide Zepbound revenue was $175.8 million. The recent analysis projects first quarter sales to be $216.5 for Zepbound. Conversely, it projects Q1 sales of Mounjaro to be nearly $2.5 billion. (Q4 2024 sales were $2.2 billion.)
See the historic sales figures below, sourced from quarterly earnings reports.
Methodology for projections
Stock price forecasting used Meta’s Prophet time series analysis based on daily closing stock prices form the beginning of 2020 to April 3, 2024. The model automatically identifies trends, seasonality and other patterns in time-series data. Stock values were gathered using via the Yfinance API (originally created by Yahoo!).
As for the specifics of the model design, it employed machine learning algorithms (random forest and gradient boosting methods) to analyze the relationship between past stock prices, drug sales and company revenue in order to forecast future revenues. It also considered 2024 guidance from Eli Lilly ($40.4 billion to $41.6 billion from late 2023). In terms of sales projections, the model analyzed how individual drugs have sold in the past, identifying trends and seasonal patterns (such as higher sales in certain months).
Ramifications of the explosive growth of next-gen metabolic therapies
Ultimately, the strong demand for metabolic therapies reveals a shift in the pharma landscape. And Eli Lilly’s emerging success with Mounjaro and Zepbound isn’t just about a single company’s growth. It underscores the meteoric rise of metabolic therapies and the significant shift they represent in the pharmaceutical industry. In 2023, Novo Nordisk’s rival metabolic therapy semaglutide was the fourth-best selling therapy, and the broader metabolic category will likely be in the top three pharma segments. While payers remain somewhat skeptical of the expensive therapies, as the potential for next-gen obesity therapies to help address chronic conditions gains recognition, this momentum is only likely to accelerate.
Filed Under: Drug Discovery, machine learning and AI
