Roche will remain oncology market leader to 2023, in an increasingly fragmented but growing therapy area, says GBI Research.
None of the products due to enter the oncology market by 2023 are expected to reach the same levels of success as the highest revenue-generating drugs currently in the market—such as Revlimid, Opdivo, and Avastin—according to business intelligence provider GBI Research.
The company’s latest report states that the oncology landscape is now highly competitive, with entrenched products competing for market share even in the second-line segment of most indications. This means that the uptake of new products requires time, entailing a market share ramp-up period in excess of 10 years in some instances. In addition, the continuing trend towards treating targeted patient subsets means that the available market shares for newer drugs are more constrained.
However, there are a number of late-stage pipeline candidates that are expected to generate strong annual revenue during the forecast period, with the PD-1 inhibitor durvalumab and the CDK-4 and -6 inhibitor abemaciclib expected to achieve blockbuster revenues by 2023, according to GBI Research.
Newer CAR-T cell therapies Tisagenlecleucel-T and KTE-C19 are also expected to make an entry into the market and achieve blockbuster revenues during this period. Moreover, the exceptionally large overall pipeline, which consists of 7,701 products, points to continued long-term growth in the oncology market.
Dominic Trewartha, Managing Analyst for GBI Research, explains: “The key market players, namely Roche, Celgene, Bristol-Myers Squibb and Novartis, are forecast to achieve strong revenue growth throughout the market period, although the entry and growth of new players such as AstraZeneca, Pfizer and Merck means that their overall market shares are expected to decline.
“The oncology market shares of Roche, Celgene, Bristol-Myers Squibb, and Novartis are all anticipated to decrease substantially by 2023. Nevertheless, despite the approaching patent expiries of Roche’s Avastin, Kadcycla, Perjeta, and Tarceva, the company is expected to maintain the highest market share of any company, accounting for 25% of revenues in the oncology market, excluding generics, by 2023 – down from 45% in 2016.”
(Source: GBI Research)
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