Novartis’ Entresto could lead the charge on an impressive uptick in growth for the heart failure treatment space, according to a new analysis from research and consulting firm GlobalData.
The report predicts the market value for these treatments will go from $3.7 billion in 2016 to an estimated $16.1 billion by 2026 signifying an increase of 15.7 percent in 10 years.
Entresto gained approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration in July 2015 after the agency reviewed data from clinical trials showing the drug could cause a 20 percent reduction in the risk of death from cardiovascular causes or hospitalization for worsening heart failure.
It was expected that this drug would be a potential blockbuster for the Swiss drugmaker, but initial sales have been modest due to factors like a $4,600 annual price in the United States.
Yet, the author of this report, Elizabeth Hamson, Ph.D., a GlobalData Healthcare analyst, writes that uptake could increase dramatically if Novartis gets regulatory approval for heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HF-PEF) label expansion.
“Over the past two decades, chronic heart failure therapies have demonstrated success in slowing the progression of the disease and in reducing both mortality and morbidity in large-scale clinical trials. However, these successes have been limited to heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HF-REF), showing only moderate benefits in heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HF-PEF). Despite the lack of strong clinical evidence, guideline-recommended HF-REF therapies are widely used to treat HF-PEF,” wrote Hamson.
Cases of HF-PEF are expected to rise so this patient cohort could produce a lucrative opportunity for pharmaceutical companies like Novartis.
The company is conducting late-stage trials for HF-PEF, but Hamson expects this label expansion to be approved by 2020 if Novartis can show Entresto is an effective evidence-based therapy therefore increasing uptake.
Hamson concludes her evaluation noting there still will be a few unmet needs that would need to be addressed in the heart failure treatment space.
“Although it is thought that Entresto will fulfill a major unmet need over the forecast period, it is important to acknowledge that others will remain. For example, effective treatment of patients with multiple comorbidities, particularly those with renal impairment, will remain elusive. GlobalData does not expect this unmet need to be fulfilled during the forecast period, although the recent FDA approval of several potassium-binding agents to treat hyperkalemia may relieve the burden of this unmet need to a slight extent,” she explains.
Filed Under: Drug Discovery
