The global chronic hepatitis B therapeutics market will rise in value from $2.4 billion in 2014 to $3 billion by 2024, representing a modest Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 2.4%, says research and consulting firm GlobalData.
According to the company’s latest report*, this expansion, which will occur over the eight major markets (8MM) of the U.S., France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the UK, Japan, and China, will be slight due to the patent expiration of all existing branded drugs in the chronic hepatitis B therapeutics space during the forecast period, and continued low diagnosis and treatment rates of the disease.
Daian Cheng, Ph.D., GlobalData’s Analyst covering Infectious Diseases, says: “Low diagnosis rates for hepatitis B are self-perpetuating, as they lead to lack of disease awareness and therefore a dearth of people seeking medical advice or appropriate drugs for their condition. In addition, the negative social stigma surrounding hepatitis means that many people are reluctant to get tested.
“With regards to marketed drugs, the chronic hepatitis B therapeutics market will experience harsh generic erosion following the expiration of such popular branded drugs as Bristol-Myers Squibb’s Baraclude and Gilead Science’s Viread.”
GlobalData anticipates that generic drugs will take up a major slice of the patient share during the forecast period, consequently reducing therapeutic sales and restricting market growth.
Despite the fairly stagnant nature of the chronic hepatitis B treatment arena, GlobalData projects there will be new product launches which will address some key unmet needs.
Cheng explains: “Three novel adjunct therapeutic agents are anticipated to enter the market in the 8MM over the forecast period, namely ARC-520, GS-9620, and GS-4774. These drugs have the potential to fulfill the current unmet needs of a very low rate of disease remission and long treatment duration for most patients.
“However, substantial unmet needs will endure, particularly as a cure for the disease is yet to be found. Furthermore, there is much room for improvement in achieving the long-term immunological cure for chronic hepatitis B in treatment-indicated patients, as well as for those who currently have no effective treatments available to them, largely due to the clinical limitations of licensed drugs.”
GlobalData believes that, of the promising drugs in clinical development, ARC-520 will have the greatest impact on the hepatitis B treatment space during the forecast period, with peak-year sales of over $630 million in 2024.
*Hepatitis B Virus (HBV) Therapeutics – Global Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2024
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Filed Under: Drug Discovery